The plan lays out the rules for a rapid ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, setting a 72-hour deadline for Hamas to return all remaining hostages taken from Israel in the terror attack it launched on October 7, 2023. “If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end,” it declares, with Israeli forces withdrawing to “the agreed upon line” to receive hostages. In return, Israel would free 250 prisoners serving life sentences in Israel and 1,700 Gazans detained since the October 7 attacks, as well as return the remains of 15 deceased Gazans for every hostage body returned by Hamas.
Following the exchange, Hamas members would be given amnesty if they renounced violence and gave up their weapons, with those who wished to leave Gaza given safe passage. “Full aid” would also be provided to the Gaza Strip, distributed by the U.N., the Red Crescent, and other neutral institutions.
Gaza—which has been largely leveled by fighting that has seen tens of thousands of Palestinians killed and displaced—would then be governed by a transition government made up of a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” with oversight from a “Board of Peace” headed by Trump. Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair would be on the board, but other potential members have yet to be announced. Hamas would not be involved in government in “any form,” the plan declares, and security would be provided by an International Stabilization Force (ISF) made up of “Arab and international partners” charged with training a Gazan police force.
This arrangement would govern Gaza until the Palestinian Authority makes the necessary reforms to be able to take control of the enclave, with a “Trump economic development plan” directing the reconstruction of the shattered territory. Israel also pledged not to “occupy or annex” Gaza and to withdraw as the ISF takes control, but would maintain a security perimeter until Gaza is “properly secure.”
If all this were to come to fruition, then “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood,” the plan concludes, with a pledge by the U.S. to establish an Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.
The grand plan has received international backing. In a joint statement, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt declared that they welcomed Trump’s “leadership and his sincere efforts to end the war in Gaza,” and the Palestinian Authority, which partially governs the West Bank, says it supports the deal. Leaders of several European countries, including Britain and France, also expressed their support. Even the Pope has spoken positively about it.
But many of its proposals have been mentioned before, in previous failed U.S. peace plans. Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told TMD that the proposal fails to address two fundamental issues: namely, Palestinian statehood and Israeli withdrawal. While the plan has a “list of principles which I think are quite sound and sensible,” he said, “I don’t think this fundamentally changes a lot.”
Almost immediately, Netanyahu cast doubt on whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would fully withdraw from Gaza any time soon. “The entire world, including the Arab and Muslim world, is pressuring Hamas to accept the terms we set together with President Trump: to release all our hostages, both living and deceased, while the IDF remains in most of the Strip,” he said in Hebrew, filming his comments from what appeared to be a hotel courtyard in Washington, D.C. Critics had called for Israel to withdraw while leaving Hamas intact, he claimed, but that is no longer on the table. “No way, that’s not happening,” he said. Netanyahu also noted that Israel had in no way endorsed a future Palestinian state.
In the negotiations that preceded the deal’s announcement, Netanyahu scored several significant victories. Israel gained broad leeway in the timing of its withdrawal from Gaza, including the ability to maintain a potentially indefinite security perimeter within Gaza—terms that were significantly different from the original text of the deal. Arab leaders involved in the negotiations were reportedly incensed, and Qatar tried to convince Trump not to release the plan at the last moment.
“Benjamin Netanyahu has ridden Donald Trump like a bus,” said Katulis, noting that Israel retained broad discretion to intervene in Gaza, the ability to maintain an indefinite security perimeter, and did not have to allow for the possibility of a future Palestinian state.
Israeli politicians from multiple parties endorsed the plan, with politicians to Netanyahu’s right, such as Avigdor Liberman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, and opposition leader Yair Lapid, to Netanyahu’s left, throwing their weight behind it. Their backing gives Netanyahu vital breathing room. The leaders of two extreme nationalist parties in Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have opposed any concessions to the Palestinians, harshly criticized the plan but refrained from outright opposing it.
Hady Amr, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a diplomat during the Biden and Obama administrations, said that Netanyahu’s assent doesn’t give the far right in Israel much to complain about. “I pray that the carnage ends,” Amr told TMD, “but Prime Minister Netanyahu is doing everything he can to accommodate the wishes of his ultra-right-wing coalition partner, Bezalel Smotrich, and in doing so is making it even harder for Hamas to agree.”
For its part, the Gaza-based terrorist group has yet to say whether it will agree to the proposal. A senior official told the BBC on Tuesday that Hamas would likely reject the deal, as it was slanted toward “Israel’s interests.” But later reporting from The Times of Israel claims that while one faction within the group has serious reservations about the deal, especially around points concerning the disarmament of Hamas and vagueness on the timing of an Israeli withdrawal, another faction wants to take any ceasefire deal that comes with a U.S. guarantee.
“It’s going to be hard for Hamas to take it [the deal], because it basically asks them not to be Hamas any longer,” Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told TMD. “But they’re going to get the screws put to them by the Egyptians and the Qataris,” with the latter country frightened by Israel’s recent strike on Hamas members in Doha, its capital. Qatar’s prime minister and Egypt’s intelligence chief reportedly presented the plan to Hamas at the same time Netanyahu and Trump were meeting, urging its leaders to accept it. The next day, Turkey’s spy chief flew to Doha with the same message.
Qatari officials may also have been incentivized by recent U.S. efforts to get them on board with the plan. During Monday’s meeting, Netanyahu called Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani at Trump’s urging, expressing his “deep regret” at the death of a Qatari serviceman in the September 9 strikes. The White House also issued an executive order on Monday pledging to take action against “any armed attack” directed at Qatar—a clear attempt to reassure Qataris that an Israeli strike will not happen again.
If Hamas turns down the plan, Trump warned that it will “pay in hell,” offering his full support for Israel’s continued operations in Gaza in the event of a rejection. But even if both sides agree on the deal, implementation will be brutally difficult. It’s also not at all clear that the White House has a serious strategy for moving forward, Katulis said, noting that he had spoken to Middle Eastern and regional officials who had contacted the White House about plans for Palestinian reconstruction but got no real response. “It’s home alone,” he said. “There’s nobody that they can go to get answers to basic questions.”
Moving forward, the capacity of U.S. aid agencies to implement any reconstruction plan is a major question, as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the State Department have both had their budgets slashed, and agencies across the government are facing shutdown-induced furloughs. Additionally, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly planning to exit from his role at the end of the year, which could leave the White House without a defined point man on Middle Eastern policy.
For now, key players appear intent on maintaining momentum, even if the White House’s proposals are less than fully fleshed out. “All that has been presented yesterday is a set of principles,” Sheikh Mohammed said in an interview on Wednesday. “There will certainly be practical challenges and implementation challenges.”
It seems that “very close” might not be quite as near as the White House would like.