How Will Trump Use His Massive War Chest in the Midterms? – David M. Drucker

The NRSC’s panel featured White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, and consultant Tim Saler, a veteran of Trump’s 2024 campaign. Alex Latcham, who leads the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, also participated. Broadly, they discussed messaging, voter turnout, congressional contests on their radar, and the president’s role in defending thin majorities in the House and Senate. They left unspecified how much of Trump’s assistance might take the form of cash from his war chest.

In conversations with The Dispatch this week, Republican sources present for the moderated discussion—during what is an annual NRSC retreat at The Breakers, a tony beachside resort—offered varied assessments. Some remain doubtful Trump will approve spending hundreds of millions of dollars he’s raised on dozens of 2026 congressional races, predicting any investment would be limited and reserved for the president’s loyal allies. Others said that what they heard from panelists left them optimistic, saying it’s clear Trump is committed to doing whatever he can to safeguard GOP control of the House and Senate.

“All of [Trump’s] top political people were there. That’s very unusual,” a longtime Republican lobbyist who has attended several NRSC gatherings said. “There is clear coordination and making the midterms a top priority. There was nothing like last time. He fully understands the history and peril in a midterm.”

“If he’s not on the ballot, he doesn’t care,” countered a pessimistic GOP lobbyist who attended the same discussion. “They claim they’re going to spend all this money. Everyone’s shaking their head; no one believes them.” A third source present for the panel offered a more nuanced appraisal of the signals sent by Trump’s political team: “I don’t think there’s any question at all that they will spend. It’s just a matter of where and how much—which they haven’t let allies know yet.”

The Dispatch interviewed more than a dozen Republican lobbyists, strategists and operatives for this story, all of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about Trump and his political operation. The White House acknowledged a request for comment but had not provided a response at press time.

Trump has a habit of hoarding campaign cash and declining to share resources with fellow Republicans absent a perceived, obvious benefit to himself. The president also has a habit of unpredictability, with Republican insiders saying quietly that he often suggests the cavalry is coming to rescue vulnerable Republicans in the House and Senate but later changing his mind. Reasons range from concluding the money would not be well spent to the perception that recipients of his largesse are insufficiently appreciative. Trump’s history of behaving this way is fueling the doubts of many pessimists, as the Washington Post reported this week.

Republicans in the House and Senate, and organizations like the NRSC and the National Republican Congressional Committee, might also face logistical barriers to accessing portions of Trump’s $483 million war chest.

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles has vowed Trump will hit the campaign trail weekly to fortify GOP congressional majorities. That travel, and his events, must be financed by donors’ money—and paying those bills through MAGA Inc. would diminish how much of the super PAC’s $304.4 million is available for television advertising. (Trump’s big-top rallies cost roughly $1 million each.) Timing is another factor. Obtaining the cheapest rates for a sweeping television campaign requires Trump to pull the trigger in the next couple of months. Waiting until after Labor Day means the same money buys fewer ads.

“It remains to be seen what the overall budget will be,” a knowledgeable Republican insider said. “They’re still figuring that out and looking at the races where the president is most interested and engaged in.” (There is a Supreme Court decision pending that could result in super PACs receiving more favorable television advertising rates, but that depends on the ruling and its breadth, both unclear.)

From the outset of Trump’s second presidency, his blueprint as carried out by the White House political operation and outside advisers has been to build a war chest and exert influence over the party’s legislative and campaign activities. So far, that plan has been wildly successful. No. 1: With a few exceptions, legislation has required Trump’s sign-off, or indifference, in order to receive consideration, partly because Republicans fear the president will back a GOP challenger in the next primary. No. 2: The amount of money the president has raised has been staggering, especially for an officeholder prohibited from running again by constitutional term limits. 

Per a review of Federal Election Commission fundraising disclosures filed at the end of January, entities controlled by Trump, or allies who take their cues from him, entered 2026 with nearly $500 million in cash on hand:

Combined with stellar fundraising performances by the NRSC, NRCC, and the super PACs affiliated with House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Thune, the GOP has developed a crucial, institutional financial advantage over congressional Democrats. The political environment portends the possibility of severe losses for Republicans in November and Democratic candidates have enjoyed a healthy fundraising advantage over their Republican challengers. But the Democrats’ collective cash deficit—$200 million-plus, at least—when comparing money raised by Trump, party committees and aligned outside groups, has become a concern.

And that’s before accounting for Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest individual, and the millions of dollars he might pour into Republican campaigns via America PAC. In 2024, the group doled out approximately $250 million of Musk’s personal fortune to elect Trump. “Yes, Democrats have momentum on our side,” Bradley Beychok, co-founder of the Democratic super PAC American Bridge, told the New York Times in a story that reports the GOP’s combined financial edge across all party committees and groups to be in excess of $400 million. “But we have a glaring disadvantage in overall money.”

This is a stark reversal from the 2018 midterm elections, during Trump’s first presidency. Democrats raised significantly more resources than Republicans at all levels during that campaign, while Trump—despite traveling extensively for GOP congressional candidates—was fixated on conserving cash for his 2020 reelection bid. The GOP ultimately lost 41 seats and its House majority. The party bolstered its Senate majority but lost control of two seats in the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

Winning the race for resources might not be sufficient for Republicans to keep control of the House this time, either. But it might save districts that could otherwise flip, stemming the overall scope of the party’s defeat, and it might help Republicans retain a Senate majority given that they have a favorable map in terms of which states have seats up for reelection. But the outcome could depend on how Trump utilizes the party’s existing institutional financial dominance.

Republicans expect the RNC will focus on legal battles and court cases, which the national party refers to as “voter integrity” activities. This prioritization of RNC resources first occurred during the 2024 campaign at Trump’s behest, and has continued since. That’s a shift from past elections, when the committee ploughed resources into voter targeting and turnout operations. Meanwhile, Trump’s decisions are being treated by many GOP insiders as a wild card. 

Recently, Trump’s political team engaged in a special House election in Tennessee, where the Republican nominee was in a dogfight in a red district; and has been spending to oust Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, a critic of the president, in the state’s May 19 primary.

In Senate contests, some Republican insiders speculate Trump might earmark resources for North Carolina, where ally and handpicked candidate Michael Whatley is running to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. Other Senate races that might make the cut include Michigan, a key swing state that the president won twice and features endorsed candidate Mike Rogers (the former congressman who lost his first bid for Senate in 2024). Iowa’s is another to watch. Polling in the Hawkeye State shows Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid could be more competitive than originally presumed.

Some Republicans believe there are reasons Trump might be uncharacteristically willing to part with his war chest. Maintaining Republican power on Capitol Hill gives the president leverage to get things done and limits the Democrats’ ability to stymie his agenda, potentially staving off lame-duck status. There’s a second reason, related to an issue known to be causing the commander in chief heartburn. “It’s in Trump’s interest to have a Republican majority in at least one of the two chambers—even if the House does impeachment, to prevent conviction,” a Republican government relations executive said.